WE ARE HAVING SNOW ON CHRISTMAS!
I am showing snapshots of the latest ECMWF run (12Z). This first image shows little to no precipitation, however we could have a light mist/drizzle briefly changing to sleet and then to snow. The cold air moves in so rapidly that the change should be rather quick. This is good news because any type of ice would be HORRIBLE!
|6AM Christmas Morning|
|Noon Christmas Day|
This is one of the toughest parts of forecasting but I am throwing out a *preliminary estimate* of snowfall totals. Side note, love the National Weather Service but if us broadcasters have to publicly put ourselves out there in terms of snowfall totals...you should too! C'mon!
Here is an example of what we use to forecast snow totals. This is the latest run (18Z) of the GFS model showing 2 snow "bullseyes." One is in Northwestern Oklahoma and the highest totals are in Southeastern Oklahoma. The one in Southeastern Oklahoma matches what I showed in the forecast models above with the snow increasing late Christmas Day in this part of the state. This model says we could get 14" in this part of the state. That seems crazy high but I wouldn't throw it out the window because this is the same model that said we would get more than a foot of snow with the 2009 blizzard and WE DID.
By blending the forecast models and the GFS snow model forecast I ended up with this:
If you can, don't travel on Christmas. It will be a hot mess all day. There will be blowing and drifting of snow. The few plows Oklahoma own and sand cannot stand up against 30 mph winds. All it takes is one accident to cause a major pileup and then close down Interstates. PLEASE STAY OFF THE ROADS ON CHRISTMAS! I AM BEGGING YOU!
I will not be around to update you all so please watch NewsChannel 4 for the latest updates. My homeboys Troy and Chase have got your back!
MERRY CHRISTMAS! Be Merry, be blessed and BE SAFE!