Thursday, December 20, 2012

Christmas Storm Update

Hello friends! I have had a few requests to update the Christmas storm.  Even though it's my day off, I love you all (and weather) so much that I will give you an update on the Christmas forecast!

So the 2 separate weather computer models I mentioned in earlier posts are finally coming to an agreement.  If only our political parties could do the same! ZING! Okay.  For real though, both models have cold air blasting into Oklahoma on Christmas Day.
Can't we just all get along?

This is the previous model run (00Z) of the ECMWF, the usual model of choice.  I am showing the previous run so I can point out when the model is picking up on snow.  This model shows snow in Oklahoma the day after Christmas (26th).
00Z run of the ECMWF at 6pm on December 26th

The newer model run suggests even drier air in place.  Granted, this is 12 hours earlier than posted above (showing 6am versus 6pm on the 26th).

12Z run of the ECMWF at 6am on December 26th

SNOW LOVERS LOOK AT THIS MODEL

When it comes to seeing snow with this storm system, the GFS is the most optimistic.  The GFS also started out very dramatic suggesting a major blizzard and now has calmed down substantially and is moving towards the ECMWF's solution.

12Z run of the GFS at 6pm on December 25th
The latest run of the GFS shows snow late Christmas Day with heavy snow in northwestern Oklahoma.  This model keeps the snow in Oklahoma through Christmas night and then dries us out by the 26th.  This contradicts earlier runs (shown in my previous posts) where it had heavy snow the 2 days after Christmas (26 and 27).  MAKE UP YOUR MIND GFS!


In conclusion, we know for sure it's going to get downright FRIGID on Christmas and possibly the coldest temps we've seen all season for the 26th.  There is still a chance for snow on Christmas but it will likely be late or not even until the 26th.  The drought highly impacts our weather and as a result, I personally lean more towards the ECMWF.  Not to mention, it has had a better run to run continuity than the GFS (better track record).

Now the amount of snow is TBD.  It will be cold enough to stick.  Stay tuned for the latest and keep dreaming of a White Christmas!  Or more than likely...a White Day After Christmas!

4 comments:

  1. Aw, shucks. So no snow most likely. Darn. Thanks for the updates.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thank you very much!

    ReplyDelete
  3. WOW, you really are a Weather Nerd!...and a good looking one at that.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thank you for doing this on your day off. See you next time at the Rock Cafe in Stroud. Merry Christmas from Brian & Gail McKenzie in Chandler, OK., Lincoln County, U.S.A.

    ReplyDelete