Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Winter Storm Update

Alright folks.  So this is why we say "stay tuned for updates."  Winter weather is notorious for being challenging to forecast due to the speed and intensity of the storm system and the amount of cold air and moisture available.

Here is the latest run of the ECMWF that I showed you in the previous post.  The previous post had moderate to heavy snow over Oklahoma.  The latest run does not show any snow AT ALL.  Why is this? The latest run shows the system moving farther North and faster.  According to this model, we will still have a cold blast on Christmas and the day after but no snow.
12Z run of ECMWF showing 6pm on Christmas.

Don't cry snow lovers. There is still hope!  A lot of meteorologists do not like the GFS.  The GFS usually has trouble making its mind up (run to run continuity)...however, the GFS was the ONLY correct model in forecasting the Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009.  So I wouldn't throw it out the window quite yet.

The latest run of the GFS slows the system down, bringing cold rain on Christmas Day and snow 1.5-2 days later.
12Z run of GFS showing 6AM Dec 26th

The GFS then has the storm system dropping far South and bringing in cold air late December 26th.
12Z run of the GFS showing 6AM Dec 27th
The latest run of the GFS then says we will see moderate to heavy snow over Oklahoma on Thursday, December 27th.

So no, we cannot give you a definite answer right now whether or not we will see snow.  What I CAN tell you is that is will get cold and windy on the 26th.  I, along with the rest of the 4Warn Storm Team, will be closely monitoring this storm system so please stay tuned for the latest.

I know there is no definite answer right now but at least I am keeping it real!

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