Alright, so I'm not going to dive in and to an entire Area Forecast Discussion for you but I will give you a few forecasting thoughts/explanations.
The big question is: WHEN WILL THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH? This is make or break for many triathletes. Ahead of the front expect a south wind around 10-15 mph. Behind the front winds will be strong out of the North around 15-20 with gusts possibly to 30 mph (no!). This model was the only one that nailed the forecast last weekend and that's why I chose it. The other computer models are suggesting a weak front on FRIDAY. This model is suggesting a powerful front on Saturday and cold air intruding late in the day and settling on Sunday (notice the cold air over the Great Lakes...that's what I'm referring to.)
Based on the graphic above from my chosen computer model (ECMWF) this shows the front moving through central OK just before 1pm (lunchtime). If this verifies, the winds will pick up during the run.
The forecast is a bit concerning. It's never good when you have a front around. Unless of course the front waits to move through until I am going South on Council Road. That way the North winds will push me. Let's hope! C'mon Mother Nature, hook a meteorologist up! I respect you and always take the time to listen when you are upset.
Originally the front was supposed to push through Friday night and leave us with cooler weather for the half and full Ironmans on Saturday. That is no longer happening and I fear another hot run. However, unlike last year's sunny skies, we should have some clouds. Overcast would be ideal...the sun just zaps your energy! Right now highs should reach the mid-80s. From what I recall, this is similar to last year.
Wind direction and speed will be crucial for the bike course. I rode 30 miles today on the bike course. Winds were out of the South around 15-20 mph this morning and the ride back going South on MacArthur was MISERABLE. Lord, I pray we don't have strong winds!
Please stay tuned for the latest forecast and have a great day!