Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Cold Front Drama!

Hello, friends!
We'll start off with a warm baguette.  I definitely ate a third of it just on the drive home.  I have to remember it's "carb loading" not "carb binging." Sorry, I get excited when it comes to hot, fresh bread!

The Forecast

Alright, so I'm not going to dive in and to an entire Area Forecast Discussion for you but I will give you a few forecasting thoughts/explanations. 
 The picture above is a view of the 00Z ECMWF for 7am on Saturday, September 22.  Morning lows should be quite mild in the mid to upper 60's with dry air in place.

 The big question is: WHEN WILL THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH? This is make or break for many triathletes.  Ahead of the front expect a south wind around 10-15 mph.  Behind the front winds will be strong out of the North around 15-20 with gusts possibly to 30 mph (no!).  This model was the only one that nailed the forecast last weekend and that's why I chose it.  The other computer models are suggesting a weak front on FRIDAY.  This model is suggesting a powerful front on Saturday and cold air intruding late in the day and settling on Sunday (notice the cold air over the Great Lakes...that's what I'm referring to.)

Based on the graphic above from my chosen computer model (ECMWF) this shows the front moving through central OK just before 1pm (lunchtime).  If this verifies, the winds will pick up during the run.

The forecast is a bit concerning.  It's never good when you have a front around.  Unless of course the front waits to move through until I am going South on Council Road.  That way the North winds will push me.  Let's hope! C'mon Mother Nature, hook a meteorologist up! I respect you and always take the time to listen when you are upset.

Originally the front was supposed to push through Friday night and leave us with cooler weather for the half and full Ironmans on Saturday.  That is no longer happening and I fear another hot run.  However, unlike last year's sunny skies, we should have some clouds.  Overcast would be ideal...the sun just zaps your energy!  Right now highs should reach the mid-80s.  From what I recall, this is similar to last year.

Wind direction and speed will be crucial for the bike course.  I rode 30 miles today on the bike course.  Winds were out of the South around 15-20 mph this morning and the ride back going South on MacArthur was MISERABLE.  Lord, I pray we don't have strong winds!

Please stay tuned for the latest forecast and have a great day!

1 comment:

  1. Great post and the additional data and graphs are fascinating to the novice. You keep this up and you're gonna put Okla Mesonet site out of business (heh).

    Have you checked to see if your brakes are sticking?? This MAY be why you hydroplaned the other day, more so than the slick street. Sticky brakes on a bicycle are more common than people think. You don't wanna mess with it going into the race, but at least "eyeball" it.

    Changing bike seats can be MURDER on your rear. When the weather gets cold get yourself a good SHEEPSKIN bike seat cover. Sheepskin is the best and really can take away some of the discomfort----I would wager BETTER than that modern seat the guy sold you (but I'm not 100% certain on that, just an educated guess).

    Make sure your ballbearings are properly oiled by someone who knows what they're doing, can save a lot of grunting. GOOD LUCK!!!